Our research alerts policymakers to grid risks and proposes practical solutions.
Primary research capabilities are a distinctive competency of the Foundation for Resilient Societies. We use quantitative techniques wherever possible. Our analytic tools include statistical correlation of initiating factors and observed impacts, comparative risk analysis, probabilistic risk assessment, cost-benefit ratios, and sensitivity scenarios.
North Korean Atmospheric Nuclear Tests
On November 30, 2017 we released a working paper, "High Consequence Scenarios for North Korean Atmospheric Nuclear Tests." In this working paper, we provided a brief appraisal of the nature of the EMP effects and how technical experts might proactively prepare for atmospheric nuclear tests. To aid government policymakers, we considered five atmospheric test scenarios conducted via ballistic missile that North Korea might pursue, taking into account potential trajectories, detonation altitudes, and impacts on humans and critical infrastructure. After release of this report, the U.S. Government invited us to give an in-person briefing.
Protecting the U.S. Electric Grid from Electromagnetic Pulse
In a first of a kind report released in 2020, "Estimating the Cost of Protecting the U.S. Electric Grid from Electromagnetic Pulse," we modeled the cost of protecting control rooms, generation plants, and substations in the high-voltage portion of the U.S. electric grid. We found this cost is comparable to other infrastructure expenditures when part of a ten-year mitigation program.
Protecting U.S. Electric Grid Communications
Protecting utility communication systems from electromagnetic pulse effects will increase electric grid resilience to a wide spectrum of hazards including cyberattack, physical attack, and loss of operational continuity during pandemic. Read about proposed solutions in our 2020 report, "Protecting U.S. Electric Grid Communications from Electromagnetic Pulse."
Long-Term Backup Power for Spent Fuel Pools at Nuclear Power Plants
A spent fuel pool at the San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station near San Clemente, California. Photo courtesy of NRC.
Our entry into policy-based research was PRM-50-96, a Petition for Rulemaking to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) that proposed long-term backup power for spent fuel pools at nuclear power plants. Using geo-spatial techniques, we cross-referenced nuclear power plant locations with regions vulnerable to outage from solar storms. Our analysis quantified likely human impacts of spent fuel fires and resulting radiation plumes. PRM-50-96 included a Level 3 Probabilistic Risk Assessment and cost-benefit scenarios for three alternative solutions.
We announced PRM-50-96 at a February 2011 press conference held at the front entrance to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, the government agency responsible for the reliability of grid power for nuclear power plants. Our petition turned out to be prescient—only five weeks after our press conference, the disaster at Fukushima conclusively showed the danger of spent fuel pools without grid power for cooling.
The NRC took notice of our analytically rigorous approach. According to a March 2013 article in Managing Power, "NRC Grants Citizen Petition to Examine Solar Storms," the NRC received 116 rulemaking petitions since the year 2000 but approved only one for rulemaking consideration: ours.
We announced PRM-50-96 at a February 2011 press conference held at the front entrance to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, the government agency responsible for the reliability of grid power for nuclear power plants. Our petition turned out to be prescient—only five weeks after our press conference, the disaster at Fukushima conclusively showed the danger of spent fuel pools without grid power for cooling.
The NRC took notice of our analytically rigorous approach. According to a March 2013 article in Managing Power, "NRC Grants Citizen Petition to Examine Solar Storms," the NRC received 116 rulemaking petitions since the year 2000 but approved only one for rulemaking consideration: ours.